Playing Chicken with the Bird Flu

Avian flu is currently confined to chickens and birds, but the big concern by experts the world over is that that the virus responsible (H5N1) is mutating, as well the avian form is likely to be global within a couple of years having been spread by migrating birds. Viruses can and do mutate independently, the mechanisms are not entirely predictable or understood completely, but basically if a human a pig or some other mammal were to get a human flu and at the same time contract the avian strain genetic changes could occur and the new mutation would be unstoppable, killing perhaps hundreds of millions of people in a nightmare scenario. As the bird flu is spread amoung birds worldwide that possiblity gets increasingly likely. It is like buying a lottery ticket with odds of one in 10 million of winning. If you buy a 100 millions tickets you are almost certain to win. There may be multiple mutations worldwide, of varying serverity over the course of many years or decades.

Is it time to panic? No,but the virus is mutating and there have been isolated human to human transmission of the lethal virus, as well Civet Cats, the harbingers of SARS, have contracted the Avian Flu. In the words of the The World Health Organization there is the "gravest possible danger of a human flu pandemic" from the bird flu virus. That Grave Danger will become greater as the years pass, and birds carry the virus world wide. In an age of global air travel, such an illness could become global within days. There is a short lead time of 2 or 3 days where the outbreak may be held to islands of infection, after that the models based on the experience of the 1918 flu pandemic point to a nightmarish scenario. This is a flu that can kill, if it were to develop SARS like characteristics where the infection did not show for 3 days or more, the epidemic would rapidly become global. Global travel would cease, military would be called in to monitor and control traffic. In other words a city infected would need to become a prison aka “Escape from New York” in order to attempt control of the virus.

There are Antiviral Drugs that can slow down the spread, however some of the more inexpensive ones have been used on Chickens in Asia in violation of international guidelines. Amantadine is one of a handful of medications for treating human influenza. Researchers determined last year that the H5N1 bird flu strain circulating in Vietnam and Thailand had become resistant. In 1987, researchers the U.S. Department of Agriculture demonstrated that bird flu viruses developed drug resistance within a matter of days when infected chickens received amantadine. "Amantadine is widely used in the entire country," said Zhang Libin, head of the veterinary medicine division of Northeast General Pharmaceutical Factory in Shenyang, China. Many pharmaceutical factories around China produce amantadine, and farmers can buy it easily in veterinary medicine stores. "It's definitely an issue if there's a pandemic. Amantadine is off the table," according Richard Webby, an influenza expert at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis. That leaves Tamiflu and perhaps some new drugs will be brought on line, at a price developing countries are not able to afford. It is also very likey that a resistance to tamiflu will emerge and there are disturbing signs that this could happen rather quickly.

In other words the Chickens have come home to roost, the world must come together and tackle a potential Pandemic problem post haste. Global Poverty, Climate Change and the odd machinations of Capitalism are all accessories to the crime. The Republics and Financial empires however do understand Money and here is something that will be getting a lot of attention. BMO Nesbitt Burns, a Canadian brokerage firm, recently published a warning about the economic impact of a flu pandemic. Even a minor disruption in the free-flow of goods would have a very detrimental effect on economic activity leading to a crash “equal to the Great Depression” according to Sherri Cooper chief economist and executive vice-president of BMO Financial Group. The Pandemic can be stopped or prevented many experts believe, but with the UN in tatters, a War on Terrorism and a President in the US who is supported by those who believe that God will simply take the believers up to Heaven in “the Rapture”, it is time for Deadly Concern. Panic may come soon enough.


Arthur Lynch.
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What can you do?

keep your immune system healthy, get enough sleep.

Get into the habit of keeping a most a full tank of gas with food and water for a week or more. More on this soon.